Kenya\u2019s general election on Tuesday is a consequential one: Regardless of the results, it will see the exit of a two-term president and new leadership tasked with improving the financial health of a country mired in economic issues.<\/p>\n
But after previous elections in Kenya were marred by violence and defined heavily by ethnic disputes, these are shaping up to be \u201cthe most boring elections in Kenyan history,\u201d asserts Ngala Chome, a Kenyan political commentator and Horn of Africa analyst with Sahan Research, a think tank with an office in Kenya. In fact, the lead-up could be described as \u201cone of the most calm and peaceful pre-election periods we have ever witnessed in recent times,\u201d adds Karuti Kanyinga, director of the University of Nairobi\u2019s Institute for Development Studies.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not to say there isn\u2019t plenty at stake in Kenya\u2019s 2022 contests, which not only will produce a new president but also members of Parliament and county assemblies, as well as county governors.<\/p>\n
Amid years of economic growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the regime of the East African country\u2019s current president, Uhuru Kenyatta, has been blamed for ballooning Kenya\u2019s national debt, Chome says. That issue, he says, left a door open for William Ruto, Kenyatta\u2019s deputy president, to break from his boss and campaign on fixing Kenya\u2019s economy, tailoring his appeal to the country\u2019s poorer population and small businesses.<\/p>\n
A former chicken seller who is now very wealthy himself, Ruto\u2019s populist stance has changed the tenor of the election, as he\u2019s making \u201can attempt to say this is about something other than just ethnic alliances,\u201d says Stephen Orvis, a professor of government at Hamilton College in New York state who specializes in African politics. The wheelbarrow has become a symbol of the deputy president\u2019s campaign, as has the tagline \u201chustler nation.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is a fact that Kenya is facing tough economic times,\u201d Chome adds. \u201cThe country’s in debt. Not so many jobs have been created \u2013 actually, jobs have been lost. And that has forced the elections to be about those issues in particular, and not so much else.\u201d<\/p>\n
But it\u2019s not just Kenya\u2019s economic future on the ballot Tuesday. Both Chome and Orvis, who served as an international election observer as Kenya held transitional elections to democratic rule in the early 1990s, say the presidential results will shape the status of the country\u2019s political elite. Chome notes there is a \u201cconflict between these two kinds of visions of Kenya: the old guard elite that is refusing to leave the political space, and a new money, entrepreneurial elite that wants to take charge of the country’s political affairs.\u201d<\/p>\n
That old guard is symbolized by Kenyatta. The two-term Kenyan leader\u2019s father, Jomo Kenyatta, was the country\u2019s first president decades ago, and the Kenyatta family is among the richest in Kenya, Chome notes. Uhuru Kenyatta has aligned himself with Raila Odinga \u2013 Ruto\u2019s main opponent in this year\u2019s election \u2013 who is another member of the Kenyan political elite. His father was the first vice president of the country.<\/p>\n
Odinga notably is a former fierce political rival of Kenyatta, and faced the current president in Kenya\u2019s 2017 contest, the initial results of which were annulled by the country\u2019s Supreme Court. Odinga boycotted the re-vote and declared himself the \u201cpeople\u2019s president\u201d before eventually making up with Kenyatta, as reported by The Associated Press. He has now become \u201cthe candidate of the establishment,\u201d as described by Chome and other co-authors in a recent article about the election.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, violence punctuated the drama surrounding the 2017 results, and has become common around Kenyan elections. The 2007 election, for instance, sparked weeks of bloodshed; Odinga also lost that contest and questioned the results, and later became prime minister under a power-sharing agreement.<\/p>\n
Both Chome and Orvis wonder how this year\u2019s loser \u2013 recent polling indicates that Odinga has the edge over Ruto \u2013 will respond to the election\u2019s results, though Chome says there are fewer concerns locally about widespread violence this year. Kanyinga adds that the presidential campaign has been largely devoid of any derogatory language or negative organizing approaches that could lead to violence.<\/p>\n
Chome also says there has been an increased trust in Kenyan governmental institutions, especially the judiciary, noting that \u201cany aggrieved political actor will feel that they can go to the judiciary and question any results and think that they can actually get justice.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat reduces the need to use violence or even demonstrations or protests,\u201d Chome adds.<\/p>\n
New technology being implemented in Kenya also aims to prevent the root causes of political violence. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems in July announced a partnership with Kenya\u2019s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to \u201cstrengthen (the commission\u2019s) monitoring of hate speech\u201d surrounding the election through an artificial intelligence-driven tool.<\/p>\n
The tool compiles social media data and \u201cwill allow the IEBC to monitor the content, volume, and trends in electoral hate speech, as well as show which groups, including marginalized communities, are being targeted,” according to a news release. The goal is to allow Kenya\u2019s commission to \u201cbe better equipped to support the ability of all Kenyans to participate in the election peacefully and enable all candidates to compete fairly and openly.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kenyans \u201cshould have a high and realized expectation that their voice matters, that their vote is going to determine the outcome,\u201d says Anthony Banbury, president and CEO of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. \u201cThat is the fundamental premise of democracy, which is increasingly under threat around the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe votes of authorized or eligible Kenyans will determine who takes office and \u2026 it’s kind of a quaint notion and was taken for granted in so many countries, but increasingly in many countries, you can’t say that with confidence,\u201d Banbury adds. \u201cI’m confident that in Kenya, that will be the case.”<\/p>\n
While Orvis maintains that there are still some concerns about violence in Kenya and questions whether there will be major change no matter which presidential candidate wins \u2013 both are familiar names with long histories in Kenyan power politics, after all \u2013 Tuesday\u2019s vote could, in some ways, be \u201cmaybe the most normal election the country’s ever had,\u201d he says. And that\u2019s a good thing.<\/p>\n
\u201cBoring,\u201d Orvis adds, \u201chas its benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Though violence has accompanied recent elections in the East African country, observers are hoping for a more quiet contest Tuesday, with plenty still at stake for the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12963,"featured_media":14402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,16,15],"tags":[7,26,25],"class_list":{"0":"post-14405","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-featured","8":"category-news","9":"category-politics","10":"tag-apie-project","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-politics"},"yoast_head":"\n