Amile or so from the crashing breakers of the Atlantic, in one of the most affluent parts of Lagos, hushed visitors admire the paintings and prints on the walls of the Nike Art Gallery, one of the biggest such private institutions in Africa.<\/p>\n
Among the gallery\u2019s visitors last week was Ehi, a businesswoman in her 40s who lives nearby and came with her three children. Hours before, officials had announced the results of Nigeria\u2019s presidential election, held four days earlier. These had left Ehi bitterly disappointed. Her favoured candidate \u2013 Peter Obi, a 61-year-old businessman who had promised reform and a radical change of direction for Nigeria \u2013 had been soundly beaten by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a veteran \u201cpolitical godfather\u201d who was the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress.<\/p>\n
\u201c[Obi] articulated what he wanted to do. He had a real programme. Tinubu had no answers. He just left me with more questions,\u201d Ehi said.<\/p>\n
A few miles across the city, in the gritty, overcrowded streets of Lagos Island, there were different scenes. Voters here had turned out four days earlier to vote en masse for Tinubu, and there was much satisfaction. \u201cNow things will get better. Who knows anything about this Obi man? But we know [Tinubu] \u2026 He will look after us\u201d, said Adeleke Adejoke Bilikis, a jobless 43-year-old.<\/p>\n
The residents of Lagos are not alone in seeing the election in Africa\u2019s most populous country and biggest economy as a potential inflection point. Nigeria faces economic turmoil, widespread violence and systemic corruption. The eight-year rule of outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari was characterised by drift and disappointment. Before the election, commentators spoke of a chance to \u201cchange the trajectory\u201d. That opportunity seems to have been missed.<\/p>\n
The poll was very different from the six others held since military rule ended in Nigeria in 1999. One major difference was a new level of competition. Obi campaigned with the tiny Labour party, taking on both Tinubu, 70, and Atiku Abubakar, 76, a second establishment politician who represented the People\u2019s Democracy Party (PDP). For a moment it looked like the decades-old dominance of the APC and the PDP might end.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat he has done is pretty mind-boggling. He has challenged the duopoly of two behemoths, two very rich and powerful parties,\u201d said Prof Abiodun Adeniyi, a political analyst at Baze University, Abuja.<\/p>\n
This was not the only novelty. Where the established parties relied on patronage networks, appeals to ethnic or religious solidarity and a massive party machine to mobilise support, Labour reached out across Nigeria\u2019s faultlines with a slick social media campaign. Tinubu\u2019s campaign slogan was: \u201cIt\u2019s my turn\u201d, which some in Lagos translated less literally but possibly more accurately as \u201cit\u2019s payback time\u201d. Obi, who made a fortune with supermarkets, promised efficient governance and innovation, not pork-barrel politics. His frugal lifestyle and modest approach was another dramatic contrast with Tinubu, who is in no way shy about his massive wealth.<\/p>\n
Much of Obi\u2019s support came from young people and urban voters. Many are affluent and educated, but not all, as voting returns from polling stations in barracks in Abuja showed. He gained 6m votes [around 25%], and won in the capital and in Lagos, long the fiefdom of Tinubu. \u201cObi is in contrast to our dominant politics. Even if he didn\u2019t win now, he has the potential to be president. His message is resonating with the people,\u201d said Adeniyi.<\/p>\n
Such analyses will encourage others across the continent. Democracy has been in retreat in many regions, with repressive regimes, parties that have clung to power for 40 years or more, and many \u201cdinosaur\u201d leaders able to see off successive challenges.<\/p>\n
In many places, opposition candidates have tried to build a popular movement similar to that launched by Obi in Nigeria. They, too, have sought to appeal to Africa\u2019s millions of young voters, whether successful globally networked urbanites or isolated villagers. All, too, have called for an end to politics based on handouts, opaque deals, cronyism, corruption and intimidation.
\nBut the efforts of Bobi Wine in Uganda, Nelson Chamisa in Zimbabwe, Adalberto Costa J\u00fanior in Angola and Martin Fayulu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo all met defeat by incumbents backed by security services, police and powerful electoral machines.<\/p>\n
Last month, Chamisa called on the international community to have \u201ceyes on\u201d the struggling southern African country, despite other crises around the world, and to \u201coffer solidarity\u201d to those fighting for change there. \u201cHere, too, people are being killed for their opinions. Zimbabweans want to see change and want to see a transformation,\u201d Chamisa said.<\/p>\n
One lesson from the successive defeats of such figures, despite their charisma and integrity, is that eye-catching social media campaigns may raise false hopes.<\/p>\n
Though Obi dominated \u201cTwitter and other social media spaces driven by his enthusiastic young grassroots supporters \u2026 this online movement did not translate [into] enough votes\u201d, said Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou of ODI, a London-based global affairs thinktank.<\/p>\n
This may partly explain why the Nigerian presidential election recorded the lowest voter turnout since 1999, with only 27% of eligible citizens casting ballots. Fuel and currency shortages were also factors. The exact breakdown of who voted is unclear \u2013 there are suggestions that fewer rural people cast their ballots than those in urban areas \u2013 but analysts predicted a low turnout could lead to a Tinubu win.<\/p>\n
Another lesson is that deep-rooted identities that have underpinned voting patterns across Africa for decades are enduring. \u201cTinubu, Abubakar and Obi all secured victories in their strongholds as expected,\u201d said Mucahid Durmaz, senior West Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. \u201cThe political map highlights the fractious nature of Nigerian politics and the continued importance of regional identities, with ethnic and religious undertones. Tinubu will have to unify a country that has retreated into regional and religious blocs, as well as gain the trust of disfranchised urban youths and Christian Igbos in the south-east.\u201d<\/p>\n
In Abuja, Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, a research analyst at the Centre for Democracy and Development, agreed. \u201cIdentity politics played a big role \u2026 The result showed clearly how divided Nigeria is,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Perhaps the greatest obstacle to reformist politicians and movements across Africa is the brutal efficacy of security services loyal to powerful established elites, and the intimidation and fear they inspire. The Nigerian elections saw selective voter suppression and violence which undoubtedly impacted the result, though by how much is unclear. The anxiety is very real. Ehi refused to give her full name for fear of post-election violence or other threats. \u201cWhy take risks?\u201d she asked.<\/p>\n
Like many, she blamed rigging for the defeat. Opposition parties have challenged the result in Nigeria, pointing to the chaotic count and long delays in posting results.<\/p>\n
But if there is no immediate evidence of widespread manipulation during or after the Nigerian vote, there is plenty in other elections across the continent. Few believe the ruling Zanu-PF in Zimbabwe will allow a free and fair poll there later this year, and there is little doubt that Fayulu was the true winner of the DRC\u2019s election in 2018.<\/p>\n
This may mean that the rapid urbanisation, youth, increasing education and growing connectivity of much of Africa has yet to reach the critical level that would allow reformist opposition movements to overcome resistance to radical change, but this may not always be the case.<\/p>\n
Despite all the setbacks and challenges, Obi may not be too displeased by the outcome of Nigeria\u2019s 2023 elections. The new political map of the country shows the south-east and centre, as well as Lagos, painted in the bright red of the Labour party. Its leader now has the time to gather the resources and create the organisation or alliances he will need for a new and possibly successful bid for the presidency in 2027.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if Obi didn\u2019t win he now has the potential to be president. His message is resonating with the Nigerian people. He is offering real change. He has passion and intellect. He has everything going for him \u2026and the system needs someone with a disruptive agenda,\u201d said Adeniyi.<\/p>\n
This will please Ehi, and hundreds of millions of others in Nigeria and across Africa. \u201cThat is my greatest joy. Each individual is now interested in the good of their country,\u201d she said. \u201cChange will come \u2026 It may not be how we planned it, or expected it, but change will come.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Last week\u2019s win for the ruling party in Nigeria is a familiar result across the continent, but opposition movements won\u2019t stop gearing up for power<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12963,"featured_media":27083,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,15],"tags":[7,26,25],"class_list":{"0":"post-27086","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-politics","9":"tag-apie-project","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-politics"},"yoast_head":"\n