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The glass-half-full version of Kenya’s latest election goes like this: the east African country has just pulled off a largely peaceful process with almost none of the violence that scarred the 2007 presidential contest. Then, hundreds died after a disputed result. This time, as in 2017 when the supreme court made history by annulling the vote, the judiciary settled the matter.
The supreme court confirmed last month’s finding of the electoral commission that William Ruto won the presidential contest of August 9. Petitions suggesting foul play were “hot air”, it said. Raila Odinga, the veteran politician and establishment candidate, had to grudgingly accept defeat. In a system where winners can — and usually do — take all, the fact that political heavyweights must abide by the ruling of an independent judiciary is something to celebrate.
The glass-half-empty case is no less easy to make. There are many reasons to be nervous about a Ruto presidency. It was only a few years ago that he faced charges at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for his alleged role in orchestrating the violence that followed the 2007 election, charges he denied. The case subsequently collapsed, though not before a number of key witnesses changed their stories.
Nor does Ruto’s real story exactly match the “outsider, hustler” image he has so carefully curated. Over his long political career, he has found time to amass a fortune from business. As President Uhuru Kenyatta’s deputy for a decade, he was part of an administration that was widely accused of allowing corruption to run rife.
Ruto was also part of a government that spent lavishly on white elephant projects, most notably a $4bn standard gauge railway from Mombasa to Nairobi. The line proved so expensive that a planned extension to the Ugandan border was abandoned. Projected volumes of cargo traffic have never materialised.
Borrowing for that and other flights of fancy has put the government in hock, largely to China. Fiscal room to spend on grassroots services has been reduced. A possible debt crisis looms. Though Kenya is a middle-income country, it has not made as much progress as similarly placed nations, such as Ghana, in eradicating poverty. Too many hardworking Kenyans are looking for work — and even food. A worrying feature of this election was how few young people registered to vote.
Still, Kenya has much going for it. It is one of Africa’s most dynamic countries, an early adopter of mobile money and a flourishing hub for start-ups. It has plenty of renewable energy, including deep reserves of geothermal power, and could become a pioneer of green transition if it can set the right incentives. Its population is well educated, making it a plausible candidate for industrialisation and economic take-off.
Yet Kenya’s governing class has never displayed the joined-up thinking that could translate this potential into transformative growth. Democracy must be more than a modestly transparent contest every five years. It is the scope for participation and accountability between elections that keeps politicians honest and focused on delivering for ordinary people.
On a continent with popular hunger for democratic government, Kenya is a key standard bearer. There have been some steps forward in Africa, including last year’s Zambia election where the incumbent president lost. But there have been more steps backward, notably in west Africa, where generals have seized power in several countries.
Kenya’s political system, imperfect though it is, has the chance to demonstrate democracy’s upsides. It must deliver — or risk losing legitimacy.
